David A. Shaywitz,

 

They'll help you avoid the seduction of easy answers and appreciate why a little well-placed skepticism can go a long way.

 

The economic downturn has brought even the most arrogant CEOs to their knees, and it has created a potentially valuable teaching moment for those would-be masters of the universe. To help them begin the new year in the proper spirit, here are five books to peruse in 2009.

1. The Halo Effect: … and the Eight Other Business Delusions That Deceive Managers, by Phil Rosenzweig (Free Press, 2007).

You've seen the titles–In Search of Excellence, Good to Great–and you know the gurus, yet somewhere deep inside you've had a sneaking suspicion that these marvelous just-so stories of how to grow your business and think outside the box without boiling the ocean might just be a bit too good to be true. Guess what? You're right. That's the conclusion of Phil Rosenzweig's delightful critique, which systematically destroys the entire management jujitsu oeuvre. This literature turns out to be dominated by success stories that are often the exception rather than the rule and by the highly selective, and convenient, application of statistics. Shocking as it is to learn that trusted management advisers might use the power of impressive-looking data to justify pre-determined conclusions, Rosenzweig shows that to be the methodology behind much of the business self-help genre.

Of related interest: House of Lies, by Martin Kihn; Hard Facts, Dangerous Half-Truths and Total Nonsense: Profiting from Evidence-Based Management, by Jeffrey Pfeffer and Robert I. Sutton; the 1999 movie Office Space; flair (see Office Space).

2. Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?, by Philip E. Tetlock (Princeton, 2006).

Maybe the revelation that pundits, political and otherwise, have feet of clay doesn't constitute news this election cycle–certainly not after last year's New Hampshire primaries. Still, the next time you are tempted to shout at your television, "Why am I listening to this bozo?" you can be comforted by knowing that a leading political scientist at Berkeley feels your pain and has the data to back you up. Philip Tetlock has spent his life rigorously evaluating the claims of experts, and he's arrived at essentially the same conclusion as Yogi Berra: It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future. That's certainly worth keeping in mind the next time you're asked for a 10-year revenue forecast–or the next time you demand one. Spoiler alert: If you're too lazy to read the book, or too cheap to buy it, Louis Menand has a terrific review here, and you can listen to Tetlock explain his views here.

Of related interest: All's Fair: Love, War, and Running for President, by Mary Matalin and James Carville; Reality Check: The Irreverent Guide to Outsmarting, Outmanaging, and Outmarketing Your Competition, by Guy Kawasaki; the 1979 movie Being There.

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